The Democrats voter registration advantage in Clark County has dropped from 87,000 in 2020 to a mere advantage of 9,435. This is the lowest advantage Democrats have held over Republicans since December 2007. GOP Consultant Jeremy Hughes reports that on average, Republicans are netting over 400 registrations a day in what was once a Democratic stronghold.

Hughes also notes that the GOP is dominating all categories in propensity voters, with “4” being a high propensity voter.

0 of 4 Voters – GOP +7.9%

1 of 4 Voters – GOP +9.7%

2 of 4 Voters – GOP + 9.7%

3 of 4 Voters – GOP + 8.5%

4 of 4 Voters – GOP + 1.7%

“Republicans continue to turn out their low propensity voters at a much higher rate than Democrats,” Hughes reports.

The trend in GOP enthusiasm is also found in the early voting reports, with the GOP leading Democrats statewide by approximately 38,000 votes (5.3 percent) and have maintained a significant a ballot lead since early voting started. As Republicans continue to dominate early voting and new voter registrations, the possibility of a democratic supermajority in both chambers is less likely.

In fact, the down ballot races of the Democratic leaders of the Assembly and  Senate are in play. Speaker of the Assembly Steve Yeager, who is facing GOP challenger Erica Neely, is leading by only 31 ballots. Over in the Senate, Nicole Cannizzaro leads GOP challenger Jill Douglas by only 48 ballots. After Senate District 15 was gerrymandered from a Republican advantage to a significant Democratic advantage, the GOP is on track to lose the seat to former Democratic Assemblywoman Angie Taylor.

Although the GOP is showing an unexpected lead during early voting, “Election Day” is a week away and gives Democrats plenty of time to engage voters with the help of third party GOTV organizations and the unions.

Adding to a potential Democratic advantage is yesterday’s Nevada Supreme Court decision which ruled that mail ballots lacking a postmark can be counted up to three days after election day. It is safe to assume Nevadans won’t know the outcome of the election next Tuesday night, but the Globe will continue to report on the trends as the reports come in.