Former President Donald Trump’s Chances to Win the Election Soar After Surviving Assassination Attempt

Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming election have dramatically increased following his survival of an assassination attempt at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday.

Before the shocking incident, Trump had a 58.2 percent chance of reclaiming the White House, according to electionbettingodds.com. By Monday, his odds had surged to 67.9 percent, making him the -211 favorite on the site, which aggregates live odds from platforms including FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com, and Polymarket.com.

In comparison, President Joe Biden now holds a 17.7 percent chance (+465) of being re-elected, while Vice President Kamala Harris has a 6.7 percent chance (14-1) of winning the election.

Trump’s odds are even more favorable on BetOnline, where he is listed at -300 to win the presidency, translating to a 75 percent implied probability. BetOnline is an offshore sportsbook that is not regulated in the U.S.

Paul Krishnamurty, political oddsmaker at BetOnline.ag, commented on the market adjustments following the assassination attempt: “Following the disturbing event that happened Saturday evening, we immediately suspended betting odds for all political markets. Everyone could anticipate the public reaction, so we adjusted the odds accordingly and moved Trump from (-200) to -250 for the presidency. Since then, we’ve seen nothing but Trump money come in.”

In betting terms, a negative number indicates the amount a bettor must wager to win $100. Therefore, a bettor would need to wager $300 to win $100 on Trump’s election victory.

The assassination attempt, which occurred just five minutes into Trump’s speech in Butler, Pennsylvania, has seemingly galvanized his supporters and increased his perceived chances of success in the upcoming election.

Source: Review Journal