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President Joe Biden’s Odds Take Major Hit After Debate with Donald Trump

By TheNevadaGlobeStaff, June 28, 2024 9:24 am

President Joe Biden’s odds of winning the 2024 election took a significant hit in betting markets following Thursday night’s debate with former President Donald Trump.

While Biden’s odds dropped, several other potential Democratic candidates saw their odds improve amid calls from some pundits for the president to drop out of the race.

Before the debate, Trump had a 55.7 percent chance, or a -126 favorite, to win back the White House, while Biden had a 35.9 percent chance, or a +179 second choice.

After the debate, Trump’s chances improved to 59.7 percent, or -148, while Biden’s chances plummeted to 22.0 percent, or +355, according to electionbettingodds.com, which averages live odds from Betfair.com, FTX.com, Polymarket.com, PredictIt.org, and Smarkets.com.

A negative number represents how much a bettor must wager to win $100. For example, a bettor would have to wager $148 to win $100 on Trump being elected. A positive number represents how much a bettor would make on a $100 wager. For instance, a bettor would win $355 on a $100 wager on Biden to win the election.

Betting on politics isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.

Trump moved from a -150 favorite to -175 at BetOnline, an offshore sportsbook that isn’t regulated in the U.S., while Biden soared from a +130 underdog to +300, or 3-1.

A CNN flash poll showed that 67 percent of debate viewers felt Trump won, while only 33 percent believed Biden prevailed.

Betting on Newsom and Obama

BetOnline also reported significant movement on other Democratic candidates. California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s odds were slashed from 25-1 to 7-1, and former first lady Michelle Obama’s odds dropped from 22-1 to 16-1.

“We just kept taking bets over and over again on Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama,” said BetOnline political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty.

Additionally, Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds were cut in half from 40-1 to 20-1.

Source: Review Journal

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