UNLV Economic Forecast Delays Clark County’s 3 Million Population Milestone by a Decade

LAS VEGAS, NV — Southern Nevada’s trajectory toward reaching 3 million residents is slowing down significantly, according to the latest long-term demographic model released by economic researchers at UNLV.

The shift highlights changing migration patterns and an aging population across the region.

A Revised Timeline to 2055

The 2026 Population Forecast, prepared annually by the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER), projects that Clark County will now reach the 3-million-resident mark in 2055. Just one year ago, the center’s models had estimated the county would cross that threshold by 2045.

The decade-long delay is driven primarily by reduced net migration and lower birth rates. CBER analysts project that natural population change—the balance of births minus deaths—will turn negative around 2032. Beyond that point, any population expansion in Southern Nevada will rely entirely on net in-migration.

+--------------------------------------------------------+
|          UNLV CBER POPULATION MILESTONE FORECAST       |
+--------------------------------------------------------+
|  - Previous 3M Benchmark: 2045 (2025 Forecast)         |
|  - Revised 3M Benchmark: 2055 (2026 Forecast)         |
|  - Natural Change Turning Point: Negative by 2032      |
|  - Key Growth Driver: In-Migration & Retirees          |
+--------------------------------------------------------+

Economic Resilience Amid Slower Growth

Despite the moderated population curve, CBER directors emphasize that slower headcount growth does not equate to economic stagnation.

Southern Nevada is projected to add 17,000 jobs in 2026 and another 20,000 in 2027, supported by upcoming resort inventory, major sports infrastructure, and transportation developments. Long-term regional gross domestic product (GDP) is also expected to nearly double over the next several decades.

“Policymakers, businesses, and community leaders should prepare for a world where population growth is not a given, but instead earned through long-term planning,” noted CBER Director Andrew Woods.

Regional planning entities, including the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) and the Regional Transportation Commission (RTC), use the CBER data to structure 25-year and 50-year infrastructure resource master plans.

Source: UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) 2026–2060 Long-Term Population Forecast Reports.