Report: Nation’s Small Businesses Set Record for Uncertainty

There was not much optimism to be found in the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Optimism Index, also known as the Small Business Economic Trends (SBET) report, released today. In addition to the Index recording its 33rd consecutive month below its 50-year average, the uncertainty component rose 11 points to 103—the highest reading on record.

NFIB’s monthly (SBET) report is considered the gold standard measurement of America’s small business economy. Used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation, it’s regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of the Main Street enterprises that employ half of all workers and generate more net new jobs than large corporations. Small businesses are often referred to as the “backbone” of the U.S. economy.

The latest SBET report finds:

• The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 10.1%, up 0.6 of a point from August. The last time it was this high was February 2001
• Thirty-four percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down six points from August and the lowest reading since January 2021.
• Seasonally adjusted, a net 32% reported raising compensation, down one point from August and remaining the lowest reading since April 2021.
• Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input and labor costs), down one point from August but remaining the top issue.

“Small business job creators crave stability,” said Tray Abney, Nevada state director for the NFIB. “They need certainty as they plan for the months and years ahead. But in this final stretch of the election season, they are finding anything but. Policy proposals from politicians of every level, interest rates, supply chain disruptions and shortages, credit card fees, and increased wages are all in flux. And small business owners are the least equipped to deal with each of these, much less all of them at the same time.”