GOP consultant Jeremy Hughes writes, “For the first time in a presidential election since possibly 2004, Republicans have taken the lead in early voting,” and the numbers coming out of Nevada’s 17 counties for in-person and mailed-ballot voting indicate that Republicans have adopted early voting and ballot harvesting, long embraced and dominated by Democrats.

To put the data in perspective, Democrats held a 47,000 vote lead in 2020, but on the third day of voting in 2024, Republicans held a 5,888 vote lead– a swing of 53,000 votes.

As of Tuesday evening, Republicans had increased their vote lead to an approximate 13,700 votes statewide with 16.2 percent of total voter turnout, per the Nevada Secretary of State. Independent voters are the largest bloc of voters in the Silver State, accounting for over one third of registered voters, yet their early voting numbers are slightly anemic, accounting for approximately 32 percent of early voting totals.

Jon Ralston, CEO of the Nevada Independent, laments:

 In the 15 rural counties, in-person voting, which is about 37 percent of the rural vote, the Rs lead the Ds by 73 percent to 11 percent. I kid you not.

In rural mail ballots, the Rs lead the Ds by a wide margin, 46-28, but those in-person numbers are startling. They account for about 8,000 of the Rs nearly 12,000-votes lead in the rurals, which are punching above their weight with 13 percent of the vote (nearly 3 points above their percentage of reg voters).

The R lead in rural Nevada is more than double the D lead in urban Nevada.

Should Republicans dominate Washoe County and “the rurals,” while gaining or holding traction in Clark County, Democrats could be singing the blues.

Hughes further notes a demographic breakdown that should concern the “vote blue no matter who” crowd.

So far, men make up a larger share of the electorate than women.

Men – 51.5%

Women – 48.5%

Even worse, of those nonpartisans who have voted, 57% are men.

With all the talk of the gender gap in this election, this is definitely something to watch.

Despite these variables, Hughes confidently predicts, “The final result will be a Republican statewide lead of 10k—20k” based on a dramatic increase in GOP voter registrations. Democrats hold a dwindling ~19,000 voter registration advantage to Republicans statewide. On Wednesday morning, Hughes reports that the margin may dwindle to a mere 10,000 voter registration advantage by “Election Day.” In 2020, Democrats had an 87,000 voter registration advantage.

Polls have shown that the race between former President Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is locked in a dead heat, and the Cook Political report recently moved the U.S. Senate race between Senator Jacky Rosen and GOP challenger Sam Brown from lean-Democrat to toss up. Yet, split ballots and razor-thin margins are common in Silver State elections, and drop boxes tend to overflow as “election day” approaches, especially in Clark County–home to two-thirds of Nevada’s population.