SILVER LINING: Nate Silver Moves Nevada Governor’s Race to ‘Likely R’ as Lombardo Builds Lead Over Ford

Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is entering the final two months of Nevada’s gubernatorial race with something increasingly difficult for Democrat Attorney General Aaron Ford to spin away: momentum.

Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin moved Nevada’s governor race from “Leans Republican” to “Likely Republican” this week, upgrading Lombardo’s reelection prospects as polling, money and national forecasting models increasingly tilt toward the incumbent. Silver’s FLIPR model had already shown Lombardo leading Ford by roughly 4.4 percentage points in its weighted polling average, 48.1 percent to 43.8 percent. 

Now the rating itself has moved.

Silver Bulletin’s September 2 forecast lists Nevada among the gubernatorial contests trending Republican, with the shift following a summer in which multiple surveys showed Lombardo establishing a meaningful advantage. Better Nevada PAC, the political organization supporting Lombardo, seized on the upgraded rating Wednesday as another sign the race is breaking toward the former Clark County sheriff.

The polling numbers are not subtle.

Three Republican-commissioned surveys released this summer showed Lombardo beating Ford by 9, 12 and 7 percentage points. The Nevada Independent noted that those surveys differed from several earlier polls showing a closer contest, including one Democrat-sponsored poll that had the race tied. Even after accounting for those competing surveys, Silver’s weighted polling average has continued to favor Lombardo.

Another forecasting model has moved even harder in Lombardo’s direction. Race to the White House increased Lombardo’s modeled win probability from 67.7 percent in early August to 79.3 percent by August 18, an almost 12-point jump in just two weeks. 

That leaves Ford staring at the political equivalent of a casino table where every number suddenly looks red.

Lombardo has spent four years cultivating a governing brand built around public safety, economic development, education reform and resistance to the California-style progressive agenda Democrats routinely attempt to push through Carson City. The former sheriff defeated incumbent Democrat Gov. Steve Sisolak in 2022, proving he could win statewide even before Donald Trump flipped Nevada two years later.

Since then, Nevada’s electorate has moved further toward Republicans. Republican voter registration overtook Democrats statewide, Trump became the first GOP presidential candidate to carry Nevada since 2004, and Lombardo has built an enormous financial operation designed to prevent Democrats from clawing back the governor’s mansion.

Better Nevada PAC has already spent or reserved roughly $20 million in advertising this cycle. When The Nevada Independent reported on the group’s summer polling, Democrats had spent or reserved just $161,000 in ads supporting Ford. 

Ford can still make the race competitive. Nevada remains Nevada, a notoriously close state where elections have repeatedly been decided on a razor’s edge.

But that is precisely why Silver’s shift matters.

Lombardo does not need Nevada to become Alabama. He merely needs to keep doing what he has done since 2022: hold Republicans, win independents, and peel away enough working-class and Hispanic voters who no longer automatically pull the lever for Democrats.

Two months before Election Day, Nate Silver’s model is increasingly betting that is exactly what Nevada will do.

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