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CNN debate between former President Trump and President Biden (screenshot)

POLL: Trump Leads Biden By 10 Points in Nevada

Since the CNN debate, a 10-point lead among Hispanics and 17-point lead among Independents – two groups that Trump lost in 2020 – are driving his 12-point electoral swing

By Megan Barth, July 3, 2024 12:52 pm

New polling conducted by National Public Affairs shows former President Donald J. Trump leading President Joe Biden by 10 points in Nevada in a head-to-head matchup since Biden’s disastrous CNN debate performance.

817 likely general election voters were polled in a survey split amongst Democrats, Republicans and Independents with percentages reflective of the state’s voter registration data. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percent.

Since the debate, Biden has offered a variety of excuses for his poor performance, from having a cold to suffering from jet lag. Many of his Democratic colleagues have publicly encouraged Biden to abandon his reelection bid to make way for a new and younger candidate. Yet, Biden insists he will remain the Democratic nominee.

“I am running. I am the leader of the Democratic party. No one is pushing me out,” Biden said on a conference call held earlier today with campaign staff.

Of the polled respondents, 26 percent cite inflation as the most important issue. “Threats to democracy” and immigration round out their top three concerns, with abortion coming in a distant fourth.

National Public Affairs polling (screenshot)

It should come as no surprise to Democrats that inflation is the top concern of Nevada voters. Since Biden assumed office, consumer prices have risen over 19 percent.

In March, The Globe reported that Nevada’s inflation rate rose to a whopping 21.6 percent. Relative to January 2021 prices, Nevadans are paying an additional $1,168 per month, or $27,782 per year, for basic household expenses.

Should Robert F. Kennedy Jr. secure a place on the November ballot, 12 percent of Silver State respondents would support his independent run. Trump’s lead drops 7 points to 42 percent and Biden drops six points from 39 percent to 33 percent.

National Public Affairs polling (screenshot)

Last month, Team Kennedy filed a lawsuit in Nevada claiming that a Secretary of State staffer provided incorrect information to the independent candidate when he began the petition process to appear on the presidential ballot in the Silver State. Team Kennedy further alleges that certain requirements to file as an independent are unconstitutional.

Following Team Kennedy’s lawsuit, Somos PAC, “a latino-led organization dedicated to electing progressive candidates” filed to intervene in the claiming that “Team Kennedy is “attempting to circumvent Nevada state law and force himself onto the ballot this November.”

Due to the threat Kennedy poses to the Democratic party’s power, Nevada Democrats, in coordination with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), have sued Kennedy and the Secretary of State in order to exclude him from November’s presidential ballot.

Despite his legal battles, former President Trump has maintained a lead over Biden in the Silver States in numerous polls conducted pre and post debate.

Post debate, a 10-point lead among Hispanics and 17-point lead among Independents – two groups that Trump lost in 2020 – are driving his 12-point electoral swing.

National Public Affairs polling (screenshot)

Independent and Hispanic voters are key to flip Nevada to a GOP advantage. Registered Independent voters outnumber Republican and Democrats in the battleground state and Democratic registrations have dwindled from a 4 percent lead to a mere 1.5 percent lead over GOP registrations since the 2020 general election.

Trump has yet to win Nevada, losing, on average, by two to three points against Hillary Clinton and President Biden. Since 2008, Republican presidential candidates have lost Nevada to their Democratic rivals.

Although Trump has a commanding lead over Biden, he urged his supporters to “pretend we’re tied” during a December campaign rally in Reno, Nevada.

“Pretend we’re tied. Pretend we’re losing by three. You got to do this, because you know, the worst thing is everyone thinks, ‘Oh, what do we have to vote for? Trump is killing them.’ And then, bad things happen,” Trump told the crowd.

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