Nevada Democrats Continue to Flee to GOP

The Democratic party in Nevada is now losing registered voters at four times the rate of Republicans. As reported by The Globe and well-chronicled by Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent, over the previous three-month cycle, the Democratic Party was losing registered voters at three times the rate of Republicans. In the latest quarter, that number has grown to four times.

In the latest numbers, Ralston reports the breakdown:

Very little change in the trend established months ago, with four times as many Dems switching to GOP in May as vice-versa. The numbers are relatively small — still in the hundreds. But more Dems also are fleeing their party and registering as indies, too, by close to 2-to-1.

The latest (last three months in parentheses):

Democrat to Republican: 650 (1,485)

Republican to Democrat: 174 (440)

Democrat to nonpartisan: 789 (2,067)

Republican to nonpartisan: 429 (1,132)

NP to Democrat: 1,063 (2,122)

NP to GOP: 1,349 (2,851)

The Globe has chronicled the vulnerability of Democratic incumbents and their political ties to and unwavering support of the Biden administration. As Nevada Democrats continue to rely on identity politics to persuade independents and minority voters, their pandemic-related actions and advocacy have caused massive unemployment, inflation and sky-rocketing gas and housing prices in the Silver State causing Hispanics,Independents, young voters and women to abandon their Democratic alliances.

In 2020, Joe Biden carried Nevada by more than 2 points; now his net approval rating has sunk to negative 11, a massive swing in a state that historically swings…but not by double-digit margins. Likewise, in Nevada, Biden has lost 16 points with Democratic voters under 45 and 9 points with Democrats over 45.

In a piece entitled, “Why Nevada Will Tell the Story of the 2022 Election,” Harry Enten writes:

None of the Democrats holding federal office in the Silver State should feel safe about their reelection prospects this year. This includes the three Democrats in the House and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. The incumbent Democratic governor, Steve Sisolak, faces a tough race as well.

Judging from the latest national and state-wide polling data, referred to by Governor Steve Sisolak’s advisor John Anzalone as “the worst political environment I have lived through in 30 years of being a political consultant,” the Republican giddiness is justified and the troubling trends are growing, in a state referred to as the “epicenter of the midterms.”