A recent survey (see below) conducted by The Tarrance Group for the GOP nominee, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, found that the race against Governor Steve Sisolak is in a statistical dead heat. With less than 100 days until the start of early voting, the following findings are cause for concern for any Democratic incumbent.
- The race for Governor Nevada is a statistical dead heat with Joe Lombardo getting 44 percent of the vote and Steve Sisolak at only 46 percent of the vote. There are five percent who would vote NOA and five percent are undecided.
- This survey mirrors the public polls that have caused the top national political handicappers like The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball to rate the Nevada Governor’s race as one of only three gubernatorial races in the country that is a “pure tossup.”
- Sisolak has been “stuck at a ceiling” of 46 percent of the vote for the past six months– an extremely weak position for an incumbent to be in– due in large measure to his poor performance among both Independent voters and Hispanic voters. Sisolak is down 33 percent of the vote among Independents and trails Lombardo by 16 points.
- Only 42 percent of Hispanic voters indicate they would vote for Sisolak, while 44 percent are voting for Lombardo, with 8 percent indicating they would vote NOA and 6 percent undecided.
- Fully fifty-two percent (52%) of Independents indicate that, in the gubernatorial election, they will vote for the candidate who will be a “check and balance on the Biden Administration and Congressional Democrats.
- Both Sisolak’s favorable rating and his job approval rating are completely polarized at a one to one positive to negative ratio, with his positive ratings below the crucial 50 percent mark. It is also important to note that there is higher “intensity” to his negatives than there are to his positives.
The Globe has chronicled how Biden’s plummeting poll numbers are plaguing vulnerable Nevada Democrats, like Governor Sisolak. Although Governor Sisolak claims that Nevada is “on the move” and he has “lowered the cost for Nevadans” by doling out free lunches, Nevadans still struggle during a recessive economy that has produced 14.9 percent inflation, the fifth highest grocery expenditures, the third highest gas prices, the 11th highest housing costs, and one of the worst unemployment rates in the country at 4.7 percent.
Addressing skyrocketing costs during a recent update on the state of the State, Sisolak claimed, “There is nothing I can do as governor as it relates to fuel prices or groceries. People ask me that question all the time, but unfortunately there is nothing we can do.” In regards to housing, Sisolak added that affordable housing “is an issue for young people.”
In a statement released by Lombardo for Governor Spokesperson Elizabeth Ray: “Governor Sisolak and Joe Biden’s bleak approval ratings are a referendum on the Sisolak-Biden agenda, which has left most Nevadans worse off than they were four years ago. Meanwhile, Sheriff Lombardo’s support among Independent and Hispanic voters shows just how eager Nevadans are for new leadership.”Lombardo July Polling Memo
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