Cook Political Report Shifts Two Congressional Races From Leans D to Toss Up

Today, the Cook Political Report moved two of Nevada’s congressional districts, CD-3 and CD-4, from ‘Leans D’ to ‘Toss-up.’  Cook cites, as The Nevada Globe has chronicled, Biden’s falling polling numbers and the economy:

President Biden’s approval rating remains stuck at 42 percent, and if anything the political environment has deteriorated for Democrats since January as inflation concerns have soared and Build Back Better has stalled. That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising “reach” opportunities.

🚨 New House rating changes: #IN01 Likely D to Lean D#NV03 Lean D to Toss Up#NV04 Lean D to Toss Up#NJ03 Solid D to Likely D#NY04 Solid D to Likely D#NY19 Likely D to Lean D#NC01 Likely D to Lean D#VA07 Lean D to Toss Uphttps://t.co/7TQGYxNPMI

— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) April 20, 2022

This shift signals trouble for Democratic Reps. Susie Lee and Steven Horsford. Civiqs Nevada polling numbers only adds to their troubles–especially in a growing electorate of Hispanic voters.

GOP candidate Sam Peters (CD-4)  told the Globe:

“It’s exciting to see that Nevada has national attention and voters are paying attention to what Democrats have done to the country. Steven Horsford has continuously promoted and voted for the Biden agenda which has led to skyrocketing gas prices, record inflation, and mounting federal debt–while ignoring crime, illegal immigration, and the real problems facing Nevadans. When elected I will fight for conservative values that promote free market capitalism and non-inflationary polices to bring much needed relief to my constituents.

Assemblywoman Annie Black, GOP candidate for CD-4 told The Globe:

“People in NV-04 don’t want someone that goes along with Biden and Pelosi’s agenda 100% of the time. They want someone to fight for them. That’s what I’m going to do.”

April Becker, the leading Challenger in CD-3, released this statement:

“Nevadans are tired of inaction and failed politicians, like Susie Lee. We have the momentum behind our campaign and will continue to focus on rising gas prices and record-high inflation, which has been caused by the policies Susie Lee has championed in Congress.”

As reported by The Globe:

Biden’s approval in Nevada, according to Civiqs, is a shocking 33/59. A -26 will be very difficult to overcome, as even Gov Sisolak’s pollster, John Anzalone, acknowledged when he called 2022 “the worst political environment I have lived through in 30 years of being a political consultant.”

Breaking those numbers down provides even more insight. Biden’s approval among registered Democrats in Nevada remains a decent but not overwhelming 71/17. But he’s at 2/97 among Republicans. That’s a crazy number. Numbers like 97 don’t often surface in democracies. More troubling for Biden—and for those in his party—are his numbers among Independents, which show an 18/73 approval for a net -55. Among Black voters he’s only at 58/26. And the number so shocking I thought I had misread it, Biden is at 40/46 approve/disapprove among Hispanic voters, a -6 among a group that is a must carry in the fall for Nevada Democrats.