A headline from POLITICO reads:
A bad sign for Democrats in critical Nevada Senate race
What is the bad sign? Polling that shows Adam Laxalt leading Catherine Cortez Masto by two points with only 17 days from election day. This latest poll is the eighth consecutive poll showing Laxalt in the lead.
According to the report:
Laxalt has inched ahead of Cortez Masto by 2 percentage points, within the poll’s margin of error, a gain from a month ago when he was down 3 percentage points, according to a poll conducted this week by the conservative Club for Growth and shared exclusively with POLITICO.
The bump for Laxalt represents a swing toward Republicans as concerns about the economy loom large in contrast with a Democratic summer boost in momentum over abortion rights. Independent voters appear to be breaking with the GOP as the Nov. 8 election nears.
Club for Growth’s super PAC, which is spending nearly $13 million in Nevada’s Senate race, found Laxalt moving from 39 percent support in mid-September to 42 percent earlier this month, and now to 45 percent. Support for Cortez Masto appears to have remained steady at 43 percent, according to the polling memo. The survey, conducted Oct. 16-18 by WPA Intelligence, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
A five point gain in one month for Adam Laxalt is certainly a bad sign for Sen. Cortez Masto in a race that will decide which party controls the Senate. It is also a bad sign for Democrats as Independents, Latinos and even Democrats are fleeing to the GOP.
The Globe has reported that Republicans have added more registered voters than Democrats since the last election cycle. Although Democrats still lead in state-wide voter registration, that margin has shriveled to under three percent. A lead that Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent refers to as “unprecedented since the Reagan era.”
Nevada is trending along with the rest of the country. The Associated Press (AP) reports that more than one million voters switched their party affiliation to Republican with the most notable demographic shift coming from the suburban swing voters who favored Biden in 2020. According to their data analysis, record inflation, gas prices and fears that the country is headed the wrong direction are causing a mass exodus to the GOP.
Inflation has surged to 16 percent in Nevada, costing hardworking Nevadans and extra $10,402 per year. As continuous polls confirm that voters are concerned about inflation and the economy, continuous, deceptive ads and numerous tweets by Cortez Masto have focused on abortion, Donald Trump and January 6th–three topics that aren’t paying the skyrocketing, household bills.
In a comment to the Associated Press (AP), James Carville fears his party’s hyper-focus on abortion isn’t working.
“A lot of these consultants think if all we do is run abortion spots that will win for us. I don’t think so,” said Carville, a vocal Cortez Masto ally who has sent dozens of fundraising emails on her behalf. “It’s a good issue. But if you just sit there and they’re pummeling you on crime and pummeling you on the cost of living, you’ve got to be more aggressive than just yelling abortion every other word.”
Yelling abortion every other word has been Cortez Masto’s strategy, yet she remains at a stagnant 43 percent in the polls. Now, she is yelling about Donald Trump. In contrast, Adam Laxalt is talking about the economy and effectively tying Cortez Masto to Joe Biden–a president who only won the Silver State by 2.7 percent but has remained underwater in every poll throughout Nevada.
A recent CNN poll shows that Nevada Republicans, Conservatives, and Independents are motivated to vote. That motivation could determine the difference of not only which party controls the U.S. Senate, but could be the red wave that wipes out the Silver State Democratic juggernaut built by former Senator Harry M. Reid which, according to the NY Times, ‘is on its heels, staring down the most significant spate of losses in more than a decade.”
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