When Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent fears a broad and deep Red Wave, Nevada Democratic’s should feel as uncomfortable as they do when they look at their polling numbers.
Ralston has been tracking voter registration numbers throughout the state and has signaled, in multiple updates, that there is a “canary in the coal mine”, forewarning that “every trend favors the GOP”. Ralston observes that the “Biden brand is proving to be toxic” and this toxicity may have been cause for notable Democratic leaders were notably absent from Kamala Harris’ visit this week to Las Vegas.
Yesterday afternoon, Ralston tweeted:
I have always said demographics are not destiny, but they matter.
I cannot remember a cycle in the last decade and a half where Dems have been this low.
Non-major party voters remain key, but if Ds don't get base out AND get a good share of indies, wave will be broad and deep. https://t.co/LId5DZPAAG
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) August 11, 2022
As reported by The Globe, Nevada saw an increase of 16,905 active registered voters from May to June, according to data provided by the Nevada Secretary of State. Of those new registrations, Republicans accounted for 12,138—72 percent of all newly registered voters. Although Democrats still lead in state-wide voter registration, that margin has shriveled to under three percent. A lead that Ralston refers to as “unprecedented since the Reagan era.”
Recent polling shows that the Demographic base is in peril. 70 percent of Hispanics disapprove of Joe Biden as Biden’s favorability among Hispanics has plummeted from 40 percent in October 2021 to an uncharted 19 percent.
Within that poll, 62 percent of Hispanics disapprove of Democrats, 41 percent are concerned about inflation, 73 percent think the country is worse off than it was a year ago and only 9 percent of Hispanics consider abortion an urgent issue.
Independents, as Ralston realizes, will be key in swinging the swingy Silver State, and those numbers don’t bode well for vulnerable Democrats. According to recent Civiqs polling, 72 percent of Nevada independents disapprove of Joe Biden.
The Globe has extensively chronicled Biden’s unpopularity as a burden on congressional, senate, and down ballot campaigns throughout the Silver State. As vulnerable Nevada Democrats run from the recessive economy, high gas prices, and soaring inflation, they are running from the concerns of a majority of the electorate. In turn, the electorate is running from them at a time when Nevada is dubbed “the epicenter of the midterms.”
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